Gillibrand Up by Three According to Siena Poll

Surges 17 points in the final two weeks of the campaign

Hudson NY - According to Siena's latest poll, Kirsten Gillibrand now leads John Sweeney by three points, 46 to 43. Two weeks ago, Siena had the campaign down by 14, but closing the gap. "Voters want change here at home and in Iraq and Kirsten is gratified by the momentum we are feeling all across the District. We know that the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day and we will be working around the clock to carry our message of change to the voters," said Allison Price, Gillibrand campaign spokesperson.

Release from Siena follows:

Siena New York Congressional Poll:

Gillibrand Leads Sweeney by Three Points, Erasing 14 Point Deficit in Just Over Two Weeks

Voters Now Give Gillibrand Big Edge on Four of Seven Issues

Sweeney Favorability Falls; More Voters Now View Him Unfavorably

Loudonville, NY - In a dramatic turnaround, Democratic challenger Kirsten Gillibrand has erased a 14 point deficit and taken a three point lead over Representative John Sweeney (R-Clifton Park) in the race for Congress in the 20th Congressional District, according to a Siena (College) Research Institute poll released today. Gillibrand now leads Sweeney 46-43 percent, compared to the October 19th Siena Poll showing Sweeney with a 53-39 percent lead. When asked to choose which candidate would do a better job on seven issues, voters give Gillibrand a big edge on four (education, health care, environment and Iraq); Sweeney leads big on two issues (crime and homeland security); one issue (taxes) was a virtual tie.

"Kirsten Gillibrand has erased John Sweeney's lead completely and taken a small lead heading into Election Day," said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena College poll. "Gillibrand is holding more than three-quarters of Democrats, grabbing the support of nearly one-quarter of Republicans and garnering the votes of almost half of independent voters, among whom she leads Sweeney by 13 points. On the other hand, Sweeney is only holding two-thirds of Republicans and picking up the support of only one in seven Democrats.

"Gillibrand has a solid nine-point lead in the southern part of the district, is running neck-and-neck with Sweeney in the North Country portion of the district and trails Sweeney by only three points in the Capital Region part of the district," Greenberg said. "There is no gender gap in this district. Gillibrand leads by three points among men and two points among women.

"The turnaround in this race is even more dramatic given the huge enrollment edge for Republicans in this district," Greenberg said.

Sweeney's favorability rating among voters fell dramatically from 49 percent favorable and 35 percent unfavorable on October 19th, to 35 percent favorable, 46 percent unfavorable today. Gillibrand remains unknown to more than one-quarter of likely voters in the district and has a 38-34 percent favorable rating, up slightly from 33-34 percent in October.

"It's clear that all the advertising and news stories have had a dramatic effect on the way voters view the incumbent Congressman," Greenberg said. "And while 50 percent of voters said Sweeney deserved to be re-elected last month, only 37 percent feel that way today, with 50 percent saying they would prefer to elect someone else."

Voters were asked which candidate would do a better job on seven issues. Of the two candidates for the 20th Congressional District, who do you think would do a better job on each of the following issues, Gillibrand or Sweeney?

"Two weeks ago, voters told Siena that Sweeney was better on six of these issues, including giving him a small advantage on traditionally 'Democratic issues' of education and health care. Today, voters still give Sweeney a big edge on homeland security and crime, but they now give Gillibrand a big edge on education, environment, health care, and Iraq. Voters even give a small edge to Gillibrand on the traditionally 'Republican issue' of taxes," Greenberg said.

"With voters unable to listen to the radio or watch TV for more than 10 minutes without seeing or hearing an ad for or against Sweeney and Gillibrand, this race will continue to be volatile till the end. However, the end comes in two days when voters will decide - by an apparently very narrow margin - whether to re-elect the incumbent Republican or elect a freshman Democrat," Greenberg said.

This Siena New York Congressional survey was conducted November 1-2, 2006 by telephone calls to 628 likely voters in the 20th C.D. It has a margin of error of + 3.9 percentage points. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations can be found here.